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El futuro de Grecia en la zona euro podría peligrar de nuevo

Grecia podría volver a enfrentarse a la amenaza de un impago y de quedar fuera de la zona euro si la revisión del programa de rescate se alarga hasta junio o julio, según autoridades europeas responsables de controlar el lento avance de las negociaciones del primer ministro griego Alexis Tsipras con los acreedores.

Grecia aún no ha llegado a un acuerdo en materia de pensiones, administración tributaria o déficit fiscal. Otros asuntos como los préstamos morosos y la propuesta de un fondo de privatización continúan ralentizando las negociaciones, según autoridades europeas que pidieron no ser identificadas porque las negociaciones aún no han concluido. El Fondo Monetario Internacional representa otro obstáculo, señalaron las fuentes.

La directora gerente del FMI Christine Lagarde se vio envuelta en una disputa con Tsipras durante el fin de semana cuando el líder griego cuestionó la “buena fe” de los funcionarios del fondo que llevan adelante las negociaciones después que el 2 de abril WikiLeaks publicó la supuesta transcripción de una llamada interna del FMI. Como respuesta, Lagarde difundió una carta que insinuaba que el gobierno griego había espiado a su equipo y filtrado el documento. La transcripción muestra a tres funcionarios del fondo analizando la forma de presionar a la canciller alemana Angela Merkel para que ceda a sus pedidos de alivio de la deuda griega.

Los bonos griegos cayeron en tanto el rendimiento de los bonos 2017 trepó 130 puntos básicos a 10,22% a las 11:20 en Atenas. Se trata del salto más grande en más de dos semanas y el primero en cuatro ruedas de operaciones.

Grecia, el miembro más endeudado de la zona euro, estuvo a punto de ser expulsada de la unión monetaria en julio antes de que los líderes nacionales acordaran un tercer paquete de rescate tras intensas negociaciones durante toda una noche en Bruselas. Merkel facilitó la salida del estancamiento al insistir en que dejar a Grecia fuera de la zona euro sería imprudente y sembraría el caos.

Aunque los responsables europeos se han mostrado optimistas públicamente respecto a la revisión del rescate, todas las partes tienen dudas sobre la capacidad de Grecia para cumplir los objetivos de presupuesto fijados por el programa del año pasado. Los temores han aumentado con la pérdida de aliados de Syriza, el partido de Tsipras, y con el aumento de las exigencias de los negociadores del FMI a la Comisión Europea y el Banco Central Europeo.

“Creo que la probabilidad de otra crisis griega para el verano es bastante alta”, dijo Carsten Brzeski, economista jefe de ING Diba AG en Fráncfort. “Dado el ritmo extremadamente lento de la implementación, la revisión, la pérdida de popularidad de Syriza en los sondeos de opinión y el escaso interés por un alivio de la deuda, creo que ya se está fraguando la próxima crisis. Sólo es cuestión de tiempo”.

Regreso de los acreedores

Las finanzas de Grecia tienen que hacer frente a una serie de pagos que culminan en el vencimiento de una deuda de 2.300 millones de euros (US$2.600 millones) el 20 de julio. El Gobierno de Atenas no recibirá otra inyección de capital del programa de 86.000 millones de euros hasta que los responsables europeos respalden su progreso en el cumplimiento de las condiciones establecidas.

Tres funcionarios del FMI han manifestado que el pago de julio, junto con la crisis de los refugiados y el referéndum del “Brexit” en el Reino Unido, podría obligar a Merkel a aceptar un alivio de la deuda, según la transcripción del sitio WikiLeaks.

Grecia ha dicho que está dispuesta a aceptar medidas presupuestarias adicionales equivalentes al 3% de su producto interior bruto, un compromiso que los acreedores del país ven como suficiente. Poul Thomsen, director del departamento europeo del FMI, ha pedido un esfuerzo fiscal adicional equivalente al 4,5% del PIB griego. Dos cargos familiarizados con las negociaciones han dicho que el FMI podría aceptar la propuesta griega siempre que la zona euro cubra la diferencia con alivio de la deuda.

“Estamos negociando intensamente y las cosas van bien”, dijo el viceministro de Finanzas griego Tryfon Alexiadis en una entrevista en Atenas el miércoles.

Altos cargos de la Unión Europea y ministros de Finanzas de la zona euro se han mostrado abiertamente optimistas sobre el progreso de las negociaciones y han alabado el avance de Grecia en pensiones, administración fiscal y el fondo de privatizaciones. “La cooperación con las autoridades griegas es constructiva y estamos avanzando en muchas áreas de política”, dijo el vicepresidente de la comisión de la Unión Europea Valdis Dombrovskis a la prensa el jueves en París.

Fuente: La Vanguardia

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