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Cada vez hay más inversores que piensan que Grecia saldrá del euro

Stephen Lewis, economista jefe de ADM Investor Services, no se sorprende de que cada vez haya más inversores que creen que Grecia podría salir de la zona euro durante el próximo año. Cita dos razones:

1) La posición financiera de Grecia se ha debilitado significativamente durante 2015:

El presupuesto de Atenas en enero se desvió sensiblemente. Hay muchas razones para pensar que los números de febrero serán tan malos como en enero de, tras la incertidumbre política y financiera después de la victoria electoral de Syriza.

2) El nuevo gobierno ha molestado a otros socios de la zona euro, por lo que las negociaciones sobre un nuevo plan de rescate se complican:

La confianza entre el gobierno griego y sus acreedores se dañó cuando se dijo que Varoufakis había descrito su acuerdo con el Eurogrupo el 20 de febrero como una forma inteligente de palabrería. A los ministros de Finanzas no les pareció que su observación sugiera un intento serio de aprobar las medidas reformistas que se esperan. Más perjudicial aún fue la declaración de Tsipras culpando a España y Portugal de formar un eje hostil contra Grecia.

Los gobiernos de derecha de esos países estaban, dijo, temerosos de que, si Grecia consigue concesiones, sus propios votantes pudieran votar a los partidos políticos que buscan un trato similar. Aunque lo que dijo Tsipras puede ser totalmente cierto, la ruptura del protocolo de la UE no se olvida fácilmente.


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